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德國能維持太陽能最大的市場多久?

   2011-08-29 27950
核心提示:According to Solarplazas overview of the worlds biggest PV markets , more cumulative solar power has been installed in B



According to Solarplaza´s overview of the world’s biggest PV markets , more cumulative solar power has been installed in Belgium than in the whole of China. The German market in 2010 accounted for 50% of the world market. It was three times bigger than the number two: Italy. Both markets have a feed-in tariff providing financial incentives for consumers and business customers installing a solar power system.

The rapidly growing international solar industry leads to decreasing prices for module and turnkey systems. The overview of the world’s 10 biggest PV markets shows that all markets are still driven by financial support programmes. This situation is likely to change in the coming years. Support programmes are being reduced, and force the industry to lower their costs and prices. On the other hand, more solar PV markets are emerging. And the strongly reduced module prices – more than 60% in three years – will make solar competitive soon in more of the sunny countries such as India, the USA, the Middle East and China. These markets have a huge potential and are climbing in Solarplaza´s overview of the world’s biggest PV markets.

Italy to Become the World’s Number One Market in 2011
The German market in 2010 was 40 times bigger than that of the number 10 – Belgium. The number three, Czech Republic, will disappear from the top 10 in 2011. The Government cut back incentives drastically this year. All other markets are likely to remain in the top 10 throughout 2011. But the order in the top 10 could change. Following the Fukushima disaster, Japan is focusing more than ever before on the development of a renewable energy supply, with solar energy playing a major role. An advantage for PV in Japan is the relatively high energy prices, which will make solar PV competitive there sooner than in other countries. Germany reduced its feed-in tariff levels in 2011 by 13%. So far in 2011, the market volume is 40% less in size compared to the same period in 2010.

The Italian market, on the other hand, is growing faster than ever before. In the first half of 2011, the market volume was almost three times that of Germany. Italy is on its way to becoming the world’s number one market in 2011. And the cumulative installed solar power in Italy in 2010 is already more than the combined installed power of 50 States in the USA. In terms of total cumulative installed solar PV power, Germany will remain the number one, with more than 17 GW currently installed. It will take Italy – or indeed any emerging giant market – at least two to three years to overtake Germany’s number one position.

China and India Potential Giant Emerging Markets
Also rising will be China and India. While in Europe the leading countries are discussing and further reducing incentives (France, Belgium), India introduced a National Solar Mission, and China just recently announced its own feed-in tariff programme. Several new markets are emerging as well, from the Philippines to Israel and Canada to South Africa. The solar PV market is diversifying and shifting towards the sunnier places on the globe – a sign that solar PV as an energy source – and with it, its industry – is maturing. Economies of scale in the growing manufacturing industry and reduced incentives will lead to further reduced production costs. Photovoltaic solar energy is on its way to becoming a competitive energy source.

SolarPlaza表示,2010上半年,意大利太陽能光伏市場交易量幾乎是德國的三倍,2011年,意大利可在光伏市場新裝機(jī)容量位居第一。

2010年,德國仍是世界上最大的光伏市場,其新裝機(jī)容量近8萬千瓦,約佔(zhàn)世界市場的50%。然而,2011年,意大利趕超德國位居世界第一。

2011年,德國太陽能上網(wǎng)電價(jià)削減13%,市場交易容量較去年風(fēng)期下滑40%。德國仍在累積裝機(jī)容量中處於領(lǐng)先地位,但SolarPlaza預(yù)測,像意大利那樣的國家也會在兩到三年超越德國。

其他排名前十太陽能光伏市場以及與捷克共和國的變化,預(yù)計(jì)落榜單前10名,在大幅度削減太陽能激勵(lì)。日本,預(yù)計(jì)增加其太陽能光伏重點(diǎn)變得更重要的國家。

由於太陽能光伏價(jià)格在過去三年下降約60%,太陽能很快就會在陽光充足的國家激烈競爭,比如印度,美國,中東國家和中國。

印度引進(jìn)一種國家太陽能任務(wù),中國近來宣布一種上網(wǎng)電價(jià)方案。幾個(gè)新的市場也正在發(fā)展中,比如菲律賓,以色列,加拿大和南非。


 
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